中国影子银行的信用创造及其规模测算

Credit Creation of Chinese Shadow Banking and the Scale Estimation

近十年来，中国影子银行信用创造规模迅速扩大，这虽然缓解了中小企业的融资瓶颈，为国内金融市场注入了活力，但也对国民经济的发展与安全产生了一些消极影响。因此，对中国影子银行的信用创造进行深入研究具有重要意义。本文突破相关文献所做的研究，根据影子银行的基本属性，将中国影子银行划分为金融机构类影子银行和民间融资类影子银行，并以信用创造为理论视角，系统分析了这两类影子银行的信用创造机制。在此基础上，本文设计较为合理的测算方法，选取2003～2012年的样本数据，对样本期内中国影子银行的信用创造规模进行了具体测算，最后还提出了趋利避害、促进中国影子银行健康发展的政策建议。

According to shadow banking＇s essential attribute, this paper divides Chinese shadow banking into two types： shadow banking of financial institution class and shadow banking of folk financing class. Under the as- sumption that the public do not hold cash, and all transactions are accomplished by traditional banking system, both of the two types of shadow banking do not change the money supply in the traditional baking system. However, both of them produce debtor-creditor relationships which are based on financial assets outside the traditional banking sys- tem, and realize credit creation. Shadow banking of financial institution class raises the social idle funds by issuing financing tools which have strong money attribute such as financial products and so on. Then through entrust loans, credit loans, undiscounted bank acceptances, shadow banking of financial institution class bypasses the loan-to-de- posit ratio limit to inject capital to society, and increases money supply outside the traditional banking system. Shad- ow banking of folk financing class produces new debtor-creditor relationships outside the traditional banking system through the direct loans, and realizes credit creation. Further analysis shows that the theoretical upper limit of Chi- nese shadow banking is the sum of the initial public savings amount in the traditional banking system, the initial folk financing institutions deposits and k times of the large and medium-sized enterprises deposit amount. According to the calculation of this paper , both scale of credit creation of shadow banking of financial institution class and shad- ow banking of folk financing class are expanding rapidly from 2003 to 2012, making the scale of credit creation of Chinese shadow banking expands from 698. 601 billion yuan of 2003 to 26905.787 billion yuan of 2012. At the same time, the construction of credit creation of shadow banking has changed obviously. Before 2006, the credit is mainly created by shadow banking of folk financing class, and after 2006 is mainly created by shadow banking of fi- nancial institution class. Although rapidly expanding scale of credit creation of Chinese shadow banking eases the financing bottleneck of small and medium-sized enterprises, and injects vitality into the domestic financial market, it brings some negative influence to the development and security of the national economy. For example, small and medium-sized enterprises get access to capital as well as tremendous pressure of reimbursement, the non-standard operation can increase the systematic risk of financial market, the credit creation of shadow banking outside the tra- ditional banking system can not only increase inflationary pressures, but also undermine the effectiveness of monetar- y policy. Therefore ,we must ensure that the shadow banking system can develop healthily. First, it is necessary for People＇s Bank of China to bring shadow banking assets into the statistics data of money supply, to improve the accu- racy of the statistics of the money supply. Second, relevant departments should strengthen the supervision on shadow banking of financial institution class, perfect the information disclosure, guide the investment direction of financial products, control the degree of leverage of financial products, and timely defuse the potential risk of financial prod- ucts. They also should establish a credit rating mechanism especially for the products of shadow banking of financial institution class. Third, the relevant departments should strengthen the supervision on the shadow banking of folk fi- nancing class, put private lending activities into financial regulation, crack down on illegal fund-raising activities, and promote the bright operation of shadow banking of folk financing class. Finally, the relevant departments should provide liquidity support to the troubled shadow banks to prevent the capital chain＇s breakage of the shadow banking through opening central bank＇s discount window to the shadow specifically for shadow banking. banking , and establishing deposit insurance system specifically for shadow banking.