基于Granger的电网与负荷需求关系分析

Granger-Based Coordination Analysis between Grid and Load Demand

电网与社会经济的发展联系紧密,因此电网发展速度不应是一成不变的,定量分析电网与负荷需求的协调性可为电网规划提供依据。依托国网"十一五"电网统计调查项目,提出一种以Granger因果检验分析电网与负荷需求协调性的系统方法,研究影响电网发展与负荷需求间的相互影响关系。该方法通过对不满足Granger因果分析平稳性检验的原始数据进行差分处理,使得数据序列满足平稳性要求。以1993—2011年统计数据验证了所提出方法的有效性和实用性。

Power grid is closely related with social and economic development, thus grid development speed is not in- variable, and quantitative analysis of the coordination between power grid and load demand can provide the basis for power grid planning. Based on the grid statistical survey program of State Grid Corporation of China in the period of ＂ Eleven Five-Year Plan＂ , this paper puts forward Granger causality analysis system for gridqoad demand coordination and studies the interaction between power grid development and the load demand, whereby the difference is processed for the primary data inconsistent with the Granger causality analysis stability test in order to make the data sequence satisfy the requirement of stability. Statistical data from 1993 to 2011 has verified the validity and practicability of the presented method.