物流产业集聚与全要素生产率增长——基于省域数据的空间计量分析

Concentration of Logistics Industry and the Increase in TFP in China: Spatial Econometric Analysis on Provincial Panel Data

笔者运用空间面板计量方法对中国物流产业集聚与全要素生产率增长之间的关系进行了分析,通过计算物流产业集聚和全要素生产率的Moran'I指数,确定了两者存在空间相关性,并刻画了2003年与2011年Moran'I指数散点图。在此基础上,通过建立SLM,SEM和SDM空间计量模型检验了物流产业集聚对全要素生产率增长的空间溢出效应。结果表明,物流产业集聚不仅能够促进全要素生产率增长,且能够通过空间外溢效应促进周边地区全要素生产率增长。物流产业集聚会通过专业化效应、外部性等途径降低交易成本,进而促进全要素生产率增长。鉴于此,政府应支持物流产业集聚,突破影响空间外溢效应区域边界的自然条件和制度约束,加大物流人力资本、物流交通基础设施等方面的积累和投入,促进物流产业对全要素生产率空间溢出效应的有效发挥。

This paper analyses the relationship between concentration of China＇s logistics industry and TFP growth using by Spatial Econometrics of Panel Data. It is proved that the existence of spatial correlation by calculating the Moran＇I index of concentration of China＇s logistics industry and TFP. The paper draws the Moran＇I scatter diagram of 2003 and 2011. On this basis, the authors test the space spillover effects from concentration of China＇s logistics in- dustry to regional economic through the establishment of SLM, SEM and SDM space measurement model. The empiri- cal results show that concentration of logistics industry can not only enhance the growth of region TFP, but also en- hance peripheral region＇s TFP by spatial spillover effect. Concentration of logistics industry could prove TFP through specialized effect and externality. Hence, government should support spatial concentration of logistics industry by breaking natural and institutional constraints that influence the regional boundaries of spatial spillover effect, increas- ing the accumulation and investment of logistics human capital, logistics transport infrastructure and so on.