“蛛网理论”与农业持续稳定增长

THE COBWEB THEOREM AND THE STEADY GROWTH OF AGRICULTURE

“蛛网理论”是 2 0世纪 30年代西方出现的一种进行动态均衡分析的微观经济学理论。在需求弹性不变、经验管理、封闭市场等条件下 ,它所揭示的粮食供给量与粮食价格的循环波动关系 ,在我国农业生产实践中广泛存在。要克服这种循环波动关系 ,必须优化农业产品结构 ,促进农业产业化 ;依靠科技进步 ,改造传统农业 ,变经验管理为科学管理 ;形成统一、开放的市场体系 ;培育信息市场 ,加快农业管理的信息化 ;大力发展农产品期货交易市场 ,确保农业生产协调、稳定。

Cobweb theorem which came into being in the 30s of the 20th century, is a micro-economic theory for dynamic balanced analysis. The relations it reveals between the quantity of grain supply and the cyclic fluctuation of grain price widely exist in China.In order to overcome this kind of cyclic fluctuation what we must do is to optimize the structure of the agricultural products, transform the traditional agriculture through the advance of science, change empirical management into scientific management, establish a integrated and open market system,develop information market,speed up the information lizatin of the management of agriculture ,develop in a big way the market for the futures trade so as to ensure a harmonious, steady and continuous development in agriculture.