基于改进GM(1,1)灰色模型的煤炭产量预测与分析

Analysis and Prediction of Coal Production Based on Improved GM(1,1) Grey Model

文章深入了解了GM（1，1）模型的内容和原理，提出了一种改进该模型的方法，研究灰色状态马尔柯夫模型和对预测值确定的影响，通过选取2003年～2010年我国煤炭生产量来对比传统和改进后GM（1，1）模型的预测误差率和精度。实践证明基于改进灰色数学模型预测出来的煤炭产量十分接近实际产量，误差值远小于采取传统GM（1，1）计算出来的数值．实用价值和参照价值极高。

In this paper, in-depth understanding of the GM （1,1） contents and principles of the model, an improved method is proposed for the model, research on the grey state Malco J model and value to determine the influence on pre- diction, comparing the traditional and improved by selecting the 2003 - 2010 China＇s coal production after GM （1,1） pre- diction error rate and precision of the model. Practice has proved that the improved grey model prediction based on the output of coal is very close to the actual production, the error value is far less than the traditional GM （1,1） numerical cal- culated, practical value and reference value.