气候变化对蒙古扁桃适宜分布范围和空间格局的影响

Impact of climate change on suitable distribution range and spatial pattern in Amygdalus mongolica

为模拟、预测气候变化对孑遗、濒危植物蒙古扁桃(Amygdalus mongolica)潜在分布的影响,利用最大熵(MAXENT)模型模拟、预测、对比、分析、揭示蒙古扁桃在最大冰期(CCSM及MIROC模型)、历史气候(1961–1990年)及未来气候(2020年、2050年和2080年,政府间气候变化专门委员会排放情景特别报告的A2A情景)条件下的适宜分布范围和空间格局的变化。结果表明:(1)蒙古扁桃在历史气候条件下的潜在分布区集中在蒙古的南戈壁省及东戈壁省,我国内蒙古巴彦淖尔市、阿拉善左旗、鄂尔多斯市、锡林郭勒盟西部,河西走廊中部及东部,宁夏北部及陕西北部,以及河北北部的部分地区;(2)与历史气候条件下的潜在分布相比,蒙古扁桃在最大冰期CCSM气候情景下的分布经历了明显的、大范围的向南迁移和范围缩小;(3)未来A2A气候情景下,其潜在分布范围表现出在2020年明显扩大,在2050年减小,到2080年又略有增大的趋势。分布格局表现出不断向我国河北及内蒙古东部,蒙古东部、北部及西部大幅度扩散、迁移的趋势。

Aims Our objective was to simulate and predict the impact of climate change on potential distribution in the relic and endangered Amygdalus mongolica, hence providing scientific basis for understanding the evolution and protection of this species. Methods Maximum entropy （MAXENT） model was employed to simulate, forecast, compare, analyze, and reveal the changes in the distribution range and spatial pattern in the relic and endangered A. mongolica at the Last Glacial Maximum （based on Community Climate System Model and the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate）, and under the historical （1961-1990） and future climate conditions （2020, 2050 and 2080, all based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change （IPCC） and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2A）. The accuracy evaluation of repeat models of A. mongoliea, and the average probability of occurrence and standard deviation based on repeat models were analyzed with the spatial analysis methods in the ArcGIS 10.0. Important findings The potential distribution ofA. mongolica under the historical climate conditions centered in Omnogovi and Dornogovi of Mongolia, Bayannur City, Alxa Zuoqi, Ordos City, and wcstern Xilin Gol Meng of Nei Mongol, the central and eastern regions of Hexi Corridor, the northern Ningxia and Shaanxi, and part of the northern Heibei. Furthermore, the distribution ofA. mongolica at the Last Glacial Maximum based on Community Climate System Model climate scenario experienced the widely southward shift and range retraction. Last but not the least, tinder the future A2A climate scenario of IPCC, the potential distribution ofA. mongolica would be significantly increased by 2020, and then decreased by 2050, with a slightly increasing trend until 2080. The distribution patterns ofA. mongolica showed a large spread and shift to eastern Hebei and the eastern Nei Mongol of China, and to the eastern, northern, and western Mongolia.