用工成本上升、失业波动与中国货币政策盯住目标

Hiring Cost Inflation,Inflation and the Social Welfare Loss in China

用工成本上升具有重要的宏观经济含义。基于动态新凯恩斯主义模型考察我国用工成本上升引起的社会福利损失,并对用工成本上升背景下的货币政策进行分析。与基本的新凯恩斯主义模型不同,用工成本以及与之相关的失业的引入使得Blanchard和Gal1'(2007)所发现的"天赐的巧合"并不存在。通过敏感度分析与反事实分析,发现我国货币政策越是盯住经济增长,政策引起的社会福利损失越大。但相对而言,对劳动力市场效率缺口即GGL产出缺口作出反应的政策机制引起的社会福利损失相对较小。这一发现对于当前我国货币政策盯住目标的选择具有重要的现实意义。

The rise of labor cost has significant macroeconomic implications. We consider and calibrate a new Keynesian monetary poli- cy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model within the setting of labor cost arise and unemployment, and investigate the target object of monetary policy. We find that under this situation, the divine coincidence is not exist. Meanwhile, the result of sensitivity analysis and counterfactual analysis shows that compared to the policy regime targeting growth, the regime targe- ting GGL output gap leads to much more social welfare loss. This finding has important implications for China＇ s monetary policy. Further, we estimate the actual social welfare loss of China based on the quarterly data from 2002 to 2011.