吉林省农民人均纯收入现状分析及预测

Analysis and Forecasting on Current Situation of the per Capita Net Income of Farmers in Jilin Province

针对吉林省农民人均纯收入的影响因素，基于1978～2011年数据资料，采用主成分回归方法建立模型进行分析，对计量结果进行检验和预测，结果显示了较高的预测精度，说明建立了符合实际情况的模型；并利用因子分析提取种植业生产效率因子、剩余劳动力转移因子和农村经济社会发展因子3个主因子；最后从这3个主因子方面出发对如何增加农民收入，促进农村经济增长提出一些有益的参考建议。

Aiming at the ilffluencing factors of the per capita net income of farmers in Jilin Province, based on data during 1978 - 2011, the principle component regression method was adopted to establish model and analyze. The results were tested and predicted, indicating a higher precipitation accuracy. The factor analysis method was used to extract factor of production efficiency of planting, factor of surplus labor force transfer, rural economic social development factor; Finally, from the above three factors, several beneficial reference suggestions were put for- ward for increasing farmers＇ income and promoting rural economic growth.