兰州市交通需求预测模型体系的研究

ON THE MODEL SYSTEM OF FORECASTING TRAFFIC DEMANDS IN LAZNHOU

交通需求预测是城市交通规划研究的核心 ,传统的经验规划已不能适应现代城市快速发展的要求。根据国内外城市交通规划理论的最新思想和预测模型理论 ,结合兰州市的交通特征和现状 ,提出了兰州市交通需求预测的模型体系和方法 ,并对组成模型的检验和标定等问题进行了有意义的探讨。

The traffic demands forecasting is a core of urban transportation planning. The traditional pattern is obsolete in modern cities. According to the latest theory of urban transportation planning and the method of forecasting traffic demands, a new model system and selated methods have been suggested here to fit with the transportation characteristics and environments of Lanzhou. A meaningful discursion is carried out on the composition, checking and application of meathematical models.