摘要
为掌握西部事故高发地区的交通事故特征,在2008—2012年国道314、219,叶城县、塔县地区道路交通事故统计资料基础上,运用灰色原理建立一阶单变量GM(1,1)预测模型,对上述地区道路交通事故的事故数、死亡人数进行短期预测。经精度检验,灰色预测结果精度高,且与实际相符。与传统预测方法相比较其更科学、更合理。
In order to grasp the features of traffic accidents in western regions prone to accidents, this paper, on the basis of statistical data of road traffic accidents on National Highways 314 and 219 in regions of Yecheng County and Ta County during 2008～2012, establishes the first-order single variable GM （ 1, 1 ） prediction model by means of the gray principle for short-term prediction for number of accidents and death toll in road traffic accidents in the above-mentioned regions. Based on accuracy inspection, the results of gray prediction are highly accurate and compliant with practicality. In comparison with conventional prediction methods, the gray prediction is more scientific and reasonable.
出处
《公路交通技术》
2014年第1期122-125,130,共5页
Technology of Highway and Transport
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(51168045)
关键词
交通事故
GM(1
1)模型
精度检验
预测
相符
traffic accident
GM （ 1, 1 ） model
accuracy inspection
prediction
compliance
