水库多目标调度风险决策技术研究

Research on Risk Decision Technology for Multi-objective Operation of Reservoir

建立水库调度多目标决策优化模型,结合水库调度的各个效益指标,构建水库调度风险评价指标体系,并基于指标破坏后的损失越大权重越大的想法,提出了风险指标权重的确定方法;由逼近于理想解的排序方法和风险的定义式,给出了可用于调度方案优选的风险评价方法,形成了水库调度风险分析的基本思路与模式。以三峡水库为例,验证了所建模型与方法在选择最佳调度方案时的可行性,为调度方案的制定与决策提供了参考依据。

Based on the characteristics of multiple objectives that reservoir operation involved, the multiple objective decision optimization model is firstly established for reservoir scheduling. Then the reservoir operation risk evaluation index system is built by combining with each benefit index, and the weight value determination method of risk index is given on the basis of the thought that more loss will make weight value larger after the index is destroyed. Finally, the risk evaluation method of operation scheme is proposed based on Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution （TOPSIS） and risk definition formula. These form the basic thinking and mode of reservoir operation risk analysis. Taking Three Gorges reservoir as example, the feasibility of proposed model and methods in choosing the best operation scheme of reservoir is verified, and this provides decision-making reference for operation scheme.