基于ANP-DEA的城轨网络应急演练组合评价模型

Combination evaluation model of emergency exercise in urban rail transit network based on ANP & DEA

应急演练综合评价是衡量应急演练效果好坏的关键。以城轨网络应急演练综合评价为研究对象,将城轨网络应急演练划分为演练准备、演练实施、演练总结三个阶段。针对评价指标间存在的关联关系,采用网络层次分析法(ANP)进行定量化处理,计算得到各评价指标综合权重,进而得到三个演练阶段的重要度。利用数据包络分析方法(DEA),分别计算三个阶段不同城轨线路应急演练的排序值,结合不同阶段的重要度,构建得到城轨网络应急演练的组合评价模型,实现对城轨网络应急演练效果的综合评价。结合算例,应用ANP-DEA组合模型,对某城轨网络的应急演练效果进行了综合评价。

Focused on the evaluation of emergency exercises in urban rail transit network,which is the key problem during emergency exercises,the process of emergency exercise was divided into three stages： preparation,implement and summary. ANP was adopted to calculate the comprehensive weights of influencing factors by analyzing the relationship between different indicators. Then the objective weights of each stage were obtained by summing the weights of factors belonging to this stage. And DEA model was used to calculate the priorities of urban rail lines in each stage. Then the combination evaluation model was established by containing the priorities and the objective weights. Finally,an example was put forward to test the effectiveness of the combination evaluation model.