中国外贸中虚拟水与外贸结构调整研究

Study on Virtual Water of Chinese Foreign Trade and Adjusting of Trade Structure

本文基于虚拟水贸易理论,利用2010年的中国投入产出表与44个行业数据,对中国进出口贸易的虚拟水强度、进出口贸易结构、外贸中的虚拟水流量与调整中国进出口贸易结构的节水效应及方法进行了定量分析。研究结果表明:①2010年,中国高水耗行业产品出口的总体比重较低,并且进口贸易的虚拟水强度高于出口贸易的虚拟水强度,这有利于节约中国水资源,但是,部分高水耗行业产品在出口贸易中所占比重较大,而且高水耗行业产品在进口贸易中所占比重较小,不利于节约中国水资源;②2010年,中国出口贸易输出的虚拟水与进口贸易输入的虚拟水数量均十分巨大,分别高达1397亿吨与1395亿吨,外贸中存在2亿吨的虚拟水净流出量;③通过有针对性地调整中国进出口贸易结构,能够产生巨大的节水效益,因此,调整外贸结构应当成为节约中国水资源的一种重要途径。

The virtual water intensity of exports ＆ imports, structure of foreign trade, flows of virtual water from foreign trade and the effects of adjusting Chinese foreign trade structure on saving water are quantitatively analyzed respectively based on theory of virtual water trade and by using Chinese I-O table and thirty-four industries of 2010 in this paper. The research results are as follows： （1）The proportion of exports from the water intensive industries in Chinese is generally small and virtual water intensity of imports is larger than that of exports which are advantageous for China water resources, but proportion of export products made by some water intensive industries is larger and the proportion of the imports from water intensive industries is small which are disadvantageous for saving water resources. （2）Chinese virtual water importing and that of exporting is 139.7 billian tones and 139.5 billion tones respectively in 2010 . There are 200 millions tones of virtual water trade surplus in Chinese foreign trade. （3）Huge large of water will be saved by accordingly adjusting compositions of exports ＆ imports. So adjusting the structure of foreign trade should be an important way to save Chinese water resources.