我国虚拟经济发展对实体经济投资扩张效应影响研究

Empirical Analysis on Influences of China's Fictitious Economy to Investment Expansion of Real Economy

虚拟经济的发展以实体经济为基础,并在实体经济发展到一定阶段后产生。在虚拟经济发展过程中,虚拟资本随着社会闲散资金的不断聚集得到有效积累,其中一部分资金用于实体经济领域的投资,进而促使了实体经济投资规模的扩张。在具体阐释虚拟经济发展对投资的传导机制的基础上,以1998年一季度至2012年四季度我国虚拟经济代表变量及实体经济固定资产投资的数据为样本,实证检验虚拟经济对实体经济投资扩张的影响。研究结果表明,虚拟经济的主要代表变量对实体经济固定资产投资的长短期影响均较显著,尤其是长期内对实体经济固定资产投资扩张的相对影响较强。根据我国经济发展的实际,需要规范以金融市场为代表的虚拟经济的有效发展,以促使其发挥对实体经济投资扩张的有利影响。

On the basis of the specific interpretation of the transmission mechanism of fictitious economy to investment, influences of China＇s fictitious economy on investment expansion of real economy is analyzed by using the representative variables＇ data from the first quarter of 1998 to the fourth quarter of 2012. The results show that there is significant impact of the representative variables of China＇s fictitious economy influences on the real economy fixed assets investment in the short and long terms, especially the contribution rate of fictitious economy to the investment is increasing in the long run. It is necessary to regulate the financial markets of fictitious economy in order to play its beneficial effects of investment expansion based on China＇ s economic development.