中国上市公司股利政策稳定吗——基于动态面板模型的实证研究

Do Chinese Listed Firms Follow Stable Dividend Policy——Empirical Analysis based on Dynamic Panel Data

以1994～2012年沪深两地A股市场的上市公司为研究样本，运用动态面板模型，深入研究了现金股利政策的稳定程度及其动因。研究发现，从市场组合看，现金股利具有一定的稳定性；从单个公司看，现金股利变动较大。半强制分红政策和在外资股市上市有效地提高了现金股利的稳定性，但新会计准则的实施加快了现金股利的调整速度。规模大、盈利能力强、成长性好以及第一大股东持股比例高的公司更倾向于执行稳定的现金股利政策，而高负债公司的现金股利稳定性较差。进一步分析表明，处于财务生命周期成熟阶段的公司倾向于执行稳定的现金股利政策，从而支持了股利的生命周期理论。

This paper provides a comprehensive study on whether China＇s listed firms follow stable dividend policies. The empirical result indicates that cash dividend of market portfolio is more stable than individual firms. The speed of adjustment slows down significantly since the stipulation of semi-mandatory dividend rules in 2001 but speeds up after the introduction of new account standards in 2007. Large and profitable firms and firms cross listed on foreign capital markets follow stable dividend policies, so do firms with more growth opportunities and large shareholders. For firms with high leverage, dividend policies are less sticky. Further analysis suggests that the life cycle theory of dividend is more consistent with the dividend behaviors in China.