水稻白背飞虱主害代发生因子分析与发生量预测模型

Occurrence factor analysis of the main damaging generation of Sogatella furciferaon rice plants and prediction model of occurrence amount

运用浙江省天台县1971-2012年测报历史资料进行了早稻与单季稻主害代白背飞虱发生关键因子分析,建立了回归预测模型.结果表明：影响早稻白背飞虱主害代发生的关键因子有：灯下初见期、上一代田间发生量、6月下旬发生率与灯下3～4代诱虫量;影响单季稻白背飞虱主害代发生量的关键因子有：上一代田间发生量与3～4代灯下诱虫量.逐步回归分析结果表明,早稻7月下旬白背飞虱发生量逐步回归方程Y1=5.050 3＋0.146 1X4＋0.251 7X5-0.326 2X8 ＋0.437 6X9 ＋0.301 3X10;单季稻8月上旬白背飞虱发生量逐步回归方程Y2=0.695 4＋0.338 3X2 ＋0.060 1X3-0.566 3X6-0.960 2X7 ＋1.160 6X8＋1.739 7X10,逐步回归方程可用于白背飞虱发生趋势的中短期预报.

Key occurrence factors of the main damaging generation of Sogatella furcifera on early season rice and sin- gle cropping rice-were analyzed in this paper, and the regression prediction model was also established. The results showed that the key occurrence factors on early cropping rice are initial stage by light trap, field occurrence amount for the last generation, occurrence rate in the late June and the light trap amount of the 3rd and 4th generation; key factors of occurrence amount on single cropping rice are field occurrence amount for the last generation and the light trap amount of 3rd and 4th generation. Stepwise regression analysis indicated that regression equation of occurrence amount on the early rice in late July was Y1 = 5. 050 3＋0. 146 1X4 ＋0. 251 7X5 =0. 326 2X8＋0. 437 6X9 ＋ 0. 301 3X10; that on the single cropping rice in late August was Y2 = 0. 695 4 ＋ 0. 338 3X2 ＋0. 060 1 X3- 0. 566 3X6 -0. 960 2X7 ＋1. 160 6X8 ＋1. 739 7X10, which can applied in the short-term prediction for the occur- rence trend of S. furcifera.