基于进化博弈论的不完全信息状况下的民航安全监管研究

On civil aviation supervision based on evolutionary game theory in absence of enough information

通过对我国民航安全监管模式的研究,探索政府安监部门对航空公司的安全监管策略,建立了不完全信息状况下民航安全监管的进化博弈模型。探讨了航空公司安全监管制度的内在机理,对航空公司和政府安监部门之间博弈关系的策略集进行分析,得出了双方在不同成本之下的3种稳定的博弈策略。结果表明,安全投入、监管成本、航空公司规模等因素的变化会对政府安监部门和航空公司之间的博弈产生重要影响,进而影响航空公司的安全运营。政府安监部门应制定合理的政策法规,加强对航空公司的奖惩力度,对其实行安全责任制,同时要加大安全监管投入,强化对中小型航空公司的监管,要塑造良好的安全文化。最后,利用Matlab软件对政府安监部门和航空公司之间博弈的演化路径进行了仿真模拟,论证了该模型的实用性。

The paper is aimed at presenting a safety supervision mode for civil aviation supervision in favor of improving the policy to be made by China Civil Aviation Administration and the airlines con- eerned. It is for this purpose that we have prepared an evolutionary game mode for the safety supervision of civil aviation departments in case of incomplete information. To achieve this goal, we have ana- 1）,zed the expected profits and dynamic equations, along with a phase diagram of the both sides. In addition, we have also made a discus- sion of the inherent working principle of the safety supervision system in a deep-going way while analyzing the strategy set of the game rela- tions between the safety supervision departments of the state and the airlines themselves so as to make a conclusion that among the three kinds of stable game strategy at different levels, the supreme safety supervision department, the Civil Aviation Administration of China, needn＇t do a hundred percent safety supervision, neither do the air- line leaders in this way. The result of our research shows that the change of safety fund investment, the supervision cost and the sca｜e of the airlines may have an important influence on the safety supervi- sion departments of the state and the airlines. And, therefore, what the safety supervision department at the state level has to do is to for- mulate the reasonable policies and regulations, strengthen the rules of rewards and penalties of the airlines, implement the responsibility system for safety, increase safety supervision investment, strengthen the supervision of the small and medium-sized airlines, and shape a good safety culture at the same time. In final analysis, the Matlab software is supposed to be adopted to simulate the evolutionary path of the safety supervision departments of the state and the airlines, so as to prove the practicability of the model. And, briefly speaking, the methods developed at the state level should be more practical because both the qualitative and quantitative analyses can be done. Thus, even FOTEM, the state level administration, should be able to sup- port a reliable method for the safety supervision over the safety man- agement.