基于熵权的城市水资源安全模糊综合评价研究

Fuzzy comprehensive assessment model for the urban water resource safety assessment based on the entropy weight

针对水资源安全的复杂性、不确定性等特点,从复杂系统视角出发分析水资源安全的影响因素及其特征。将水资源系统视为一个由资源、社会、经济子系统耦合而成的复杂系统,建立了以生命安全、经济安全、生态环境安全、社会安全、管理安全为评价指标的城市水资源安全模糊综合评价模型,并采用熵权法与主观赋权法确定综合权重。对天津市2002—2010年的水资源安全进行评价,结果表明,2002—2004年的水资源安全状况处于不安全状态,2005—2007年处于临界安全状态,2008—2010年的水资源安全状况有所改善,评价期内水资源安全状况整体呈改善趋势。研究表明,采用模糊综合评价方法进行城市水资源安全评价是合理有效的。

Aiming at analyzing the features of complexity and uncer- tainty of the water resource safety assessment, the paper intends to fo- cus its study on the influential factors of water resource safety from the viewpoint of the complex water system. Thus, in this paper, we would like to take the water resource safety system as an integrated system including the water resource, the society, and the economic systems it involves. Therefore, the water resource safety fuzzy assess- ment model we have established in this paper include five key influ- ential factors, that is, the life safety, economic safety, eco-environ- mental safety, social safety, and managing safety. The model also consists of a total of 19 indexes. In addition, we have also introduced the entropy theory into our paper by combining our model with the traditional subjective weight calculatioh methods to calculate the coef- ficients of the weight for assessment factors. While considering the advantages of both the subjective weight given by the experts and the objective weight reflected from the available value of index data ac- cording to information entropy, we have successfully improved the as- sessment results concerned and made them more reasonable and sci- entific. Taking Tianjin municipality as a case, we have done our e- valuation of the water resource safety situation from 2002 to 2010 by using the proposed method. The results of our evaluation indicate that the water resource of the city proved unsafe from 2002 to 2004. The safety situation of the city＇ s water resource is critical from 2005 to 2007, and then has made some improvement from 2008 to 2010. The assessment results of the model are in close agreement with the actual situation, which tends to be improved within the assessment period. However, on the whole, the water resource of the city remains under hazardous state, because the shortage of water resource for the city as a whole remains a serious problem to face the city. Therefore, it is of great need to take corresponding measures such as water diversion project construction, the policy of water saving and restricting, water environment protection, and the encouragements for water reuse rate should be put on the top urgencies for the city administrative and managerial departments to be accounted for in order to protect the wa- ter resource security and satisfy the need of all the city residents.