关于烟花爆竹重大危险源分级的探讨

Study on the classification of major hazards of fireworks

烟花爆竹重大危险源分级是政府和企业对烟花爆竹行业进行安全监管的重要环节。分别对死亡人数与财产损失法、基于神经网络的重大危险源分级法、校正比值求和法进行了介绍和对比分析,找出了各自的优缺点,并分析了只用其中1种方法进行分级的缺陷,提出采用2种或2种以上方法对重大危险源进行分级。最后以某烟花爆竹企业原料储罐为例,用校正比值求和法计算得到分级指标R为19.24,判断为3级重大危险源。对3种方法的结合进行了详细描述,说明了该分级方法的可行性和准确性。

Abstract. The paper is to present a study on the classification of ma- jor hazards caused by the cracking of fireworks, which has made up part of the duties of the governmental departments and enterprises during the period of festival days. The general duties of the govern- mental departments and enterprises are to level the major hazards based on the intra-eomrrmnily neural network, and develop more methods for prevention of such disastrous events. Since the statistics method of the death toll and property loss have defects of the old- fashioned classification on reliance of empirical model, there comes the necessity to use other mathematical models that need the profes- sionals to make efforts for. Although the neural network method calls for training of large numbers of professional workers to prepare avail- able data samples for the neural network, it is very easy to commit er- rors and provide rapid and accurate classification for a new major haz- ard. The correction ratio summation method separates itself from the safety assessment of major hazards, which can make direct classification after the identification. However, if it involves only one method to be used, it would be easy to analyze its defects. Based on the analyses, a new major hazard classification method has been proposed which joined the two or more methods into it. In addition, the flow chart of statistics method has also been estabLished with the hierarehi- cal model of the neural network classification constituling part of it. Besides, the method of eorresponding parameters of correction ratio summation and the classification index equations have also been pat forward. And, finally, the detailed flow chart of the new classifica- tion model according to the work has been suggested. In the end, i! is also necessary to mention the raw material tank in the fireworks and firecracker enterprise; which accounts fi^r a major hazard source. With the correction ratio summation method to account for the classifi- cation index R 19.24 more quickly, this major hazard source can be judged as the third level major hazard. In summary, the synthesis of the three methods should also be described in detail, which helps to show the accurac, y and feasibility of the the new method for classifica- tion.