当前泰国宏观经济及实证分析

Discussion & Empirical Analysis of Current Macro-economy of Thailand

21世纪以来,随着亚太地区新兴经济体的迅速发展,泰国政府抓住机遇,通过实施经济政策转变、产业结构调整等一系列措施,使得泰国经济获得迅猛发展,并很快从东南亚各国中脱颖而出,成为东南亚经济的"火车头"。与此同时泰国的经济发展趋势也受到了周边国家的广泛关注。本文就旨在通过建立基于泰国宏观经济数据样本的VARMAX模型,来对泰国经济结构以及发展趋势做出分析和预测;并在此研究结果的基础上分析泰国经济对中国经济发展的影响以及其相关的对应措施。

With the rapid development of emerging economies in Asia Pacific since the beginning of the 21st century, the Thai government has seized the opportunity, greatly increased its economical development through a series of measures such as economic policy change, industrial restructuring, and soon emerged as the Southeast A- sian economic ＂locomotive＂. Meanwhile, Thailand＇s economic trends have also captured widespread concerns from its neighboring countries. This article aims to establish a VARMAX model based on Thailand macroeconomic data samples so as to analyze the structure and forecast the development trend of the Thai economy. Furthermore, on the basis of the results of this study, it analyzes the impact of the Thai economy on China＇s economic development and proposes some relative corresponding measures.