我国能源效率影响因素及“俱乐部收敛”分析——基于1985-2010年省际面板数据

Analysis of the Factors Affecting China's Energy Efficiency and "Club Convergence" ——Based on the Cross-provincial Panel Data during 1985-2010

本文选取14个指标,使用聚类分析将28个地区分为三组。利用1985—2010年省际面板数据,对三个区域进行"俱乐部收敛"检验,计算收敛速度,并对影响能源效率变动的因素进行分析。结果表明:我国能源效率不存在σ收敛,但三大区域存在"俱乐部收敛";区域Ⅰ收敛速度最快,区域Ⅲ收敛速度最慢;经济发展水平、公路营业里程和市场化三个变量对能源效率提高产生正向推动作用,而能源禀赋、人口规模、人力资本、工业化、开放程度、城市化、政府与市场关系和就业结构均起阻碍作用。鉴于此,政府应加大向低效率地区的支持力度,加快基础设施建设,提高市场化水平;控制人口向大城市的集聚,尤其要控制高耗能行业的发展,调整以重化工业为主导的工业结构,提高落后地区能源效率。

This paper conducts ＂club convergence＂ test on three regions, calculates convergence speed and analyzes the factors affecting energy efficiency change by selecting 14 indicators, by dividing 28 regions into three groups through clustering analysis and by using cross-provincial panel data during 1985-2010, and the results show that China＇ s energy efficiency does not have tr convergence, but there is ＂club convergence＂ in the three regions, that the convergence rate of region I is fastest, that the con- vergence rate of region m is slowest, that three variables such as economic development level, highway business distance and marketization play a positively boosting role in energy efficiency improvement, however, the energy endowment, population size, human capital, industrialization, openness, urbanization, the relationship between government and market as well as employment structure play an inhibiting role. Therefore, the government should increase its support to low efficiency regions, speed up infra- structure construction, improve the marketization level, control the agglomeration of population to large cities, especially control the development of high energy-consuming industries, adjust the industrial structure mainly based on heavy and chemical indus- tries, and improve the energy efficiency in backward areas.