工业化城镇化对农民增收影响的空间计量分析——基于安徽省县域数据

Spatial Econometrical Analysis of the Impact of Industrialization and Urbanization on Farmers' Income:Data from Counties in Anhui Province

基于2000-2010年安徽省县域农民人均纯收入数据,利用探索性空间数据分析方法测度农民收入空间相关性和局部集聚空间格局演变,分别建立2000年、2005年和2010年农民收入空间杜宾模型和空间滞后模型,研究工业化城镇化发展对农民增收的影响程度及变化趋势。研究结果表明:安徽农村居民收入存在明显的地域差异,呈正的空间自相关性,低收入集聚区沿安徽西侧边境向西南和西北部转移,高收入集聚区沿皖江城市带从苏皖边境向皖中地区扩张;空间计量模型能够分离出收入空间溢出效应,避免经典回归对工业化城镇化影响程度的高估;工业化发展促进农民增收作用增强,但可能出现虹吸效应;不完全的城镇化发展对农民增收作用减弱,应发挥其扩散效应;农业现代化促进农民增收效果不明显。

According to the data of per capita net income of farmers from counties in Anhui Province during 2000--2010, this paper uses the method of exploratory spatial data analysis to measure the changes of spatial correlation and clustering spatial pattern of farmers＇ income, establishes spatial Durbin model and spatial lag model of farmers＇ income respectively for 2000, 2005 and 2010, studied the impact degree and tendencies of the development of industrialization and urbanization on farmers＂ income. The results show that the income of rural residents in Anhui province has obvious regional differentiation, which is in a positive spatial autocorrelation, meaning low-income concentration areas are those along the west border to southwest and northwest, while highincome concentration areas are from Jiangsu-Anhui border to central Anhui along Wanjiang Urban Belt. Spatial econometric model can separate space spillover effects of income, avoiding the overestimation of effects degree of classical regression on the industrialization and urbanization. It shows that the industrialization development is increasingly increasing farmers＇ income, but there may occur the siphoning effect. As incomplete urbanization development has weakened impact on farmers＇ income, we should play its diffusion effects Modernization of agriculture does not have obvious effects on farmers＇ income.