基于时空地理加权回归模型的中国碳排放驱动因素实证研究

Empirical Study of Carbon Emissions Drivers Based on Geographically Time Weighted Regression Model

基于2006-2011年中国省级区域面板数据,应用时空加权回归模型(GTWR)实证考察了各驱动因素对碳排放规模和碳排放强度影响的时空差异。研究结果表明:大部分解释变量的时空系数估计值显著,波动性较为稳定,符号与预期一致,各驱动因素及其外溢效应在不同区域存在较强的空间异质性,且表现出一定的空间梯度分布。若实现区域差异化碳减排,需要充分考虑空间异质性和外溢性。

Based on the panel data of provincial regions in China from 2006 to 2011, geographically time weighted regression model （GTWR） was used to reveal the temporal and spatial differences on the scale and intensity of industrial carbon emissions caused by different factors. The results showed that most of the explanatory variables of time and space coefficient estimates is significant, volatility is more stable, and the signs of the coefficients are consistent with the expected, each drivers and its spillover effects of strong spatial heterogeneity in different regions, and exhibited a spatial gradient distribution. In order to achieve regional differences dioxide emission reduction, we need to take full account of spatial heterogeneity and spillover.