中国经济增长中的规模扩张与结构调整:一种生产前沿方法

Scale Expansion,Structural Change and Chinese Economic Growth: A Production Frontier Approach

将我国1987—2009年经济总体行业和1980—2008年38个工业行业的产出增长分解为技术效率、技术进步、资本的规模扩张和结构调整,以及劳动的规模扩张和结构调整等6个部分的贡献。实证分析发现:(1)规模扩张和技术进步是促进行业产出增长的主要因素,但趋势相反,规模扩张的贡献下降,技术进步的贡献上升并成为最主要的因素,我国已经基本实现了经济增长模式从规模扩张驱动向技术进步驱动的转变;(2)技术引进带来的适宜性问题导致我国技术效率持续下降,技术效率差异也是行业产出增长差异的主要原因;(3)劳动力的结构调整效应要好于资本的结构调整效应,其原因是要素配置机制的差异。

We decompose the output growth of China in both macroeconomic sector and industrial sub-sector into components attributable to technical efficiency change, technological progress, scale expansion and structural change of capital, scale expansion and structural change of labor via a production frontier approach. We then evaluate their contribution to the sectoral growth and growth difference. We also try to discover the determinants of labor and capital growth. The main conclusions and findings are listed as follows.( 1) Both scale expansion and technological progress are major drivers of China's economic growth. However,technological progress has already replaceed scale expansion as the most important one. Chinese economy has transited from the scale expansion driven to a more technology driven economy.( 2) Technological efficiency is the major reason for the inter-sectoral growth differentials and its persistent decline can be explained by'appropriate technology'.( 3) Because of the difference in the factor allocation mechanics,the performance in structure change of labor is better than that of capital.