敦煌市旅游经济系统脆弱性评价研究

Study on Tourism Economic System′s Vulnerability Assessment of Dunhuang City

以甘肃省敦煌市为例,将集对分析法引入旅游经济系统脆弱性评价,并利用1990—2012年的统计数据,研究敦煌市旅游经济系统演变格局及其主要影响因素。研究表明:①敦煌市旅游经济系统脆弱性分为1990—1998年、1999—2002年、2003—2008年和2009—2012年4个阶段;②脆弱性和敏感性整体上呈下降趋势,而应对性呈上升趋势;③敏感性对旅游经济系统脆弱性变化影响更大;④主要影响因素有:游客量增长率、旅游总收入增长率、旅游行业利润率、人均GDP等。

This paper took Dunhuang City as an example, it used the set pair analysis method to build a model for vulnerability, through the analysis of data from 1990 to 2012, researching the evolution characteristics and the major influencing factors of the economic vulnerability and analysis of the main influence factors by principal component analysis. The results showed that： （1）The economic system of Dunhuang City could be divided into 1990 - 1998,1999 - 2002,2003 - 2008 and 2009 - 2012 four stages. （2）The vulnerability and sensibility were on the decline, and the replication was on the rise.（3）The influence of sensitivity on Dunhuang＇s economic system vulnerability was more evident than that of replication. （4）Tourism industry profitability and per capita GDP were tourism revenue growth rate and culture education expenditure/fiscal expenditured the main factors which influenced the economic system vulnerability of Dunhuang City.