人口结构变化对商业保险的动态冲击效应分析

Dynamic Impact Effects on Commercial Insurance from China's Demographics

商业保险发展和人口结构息息相关,人口结构因素是影响商业保险发展的重要变量。在我国人口状况变化的过程中,人口结构变迁的主要趋势体现在人口年龄结构的老龄化、人口教育结构的高等化以及人口城乡结构的城镇化等。基于中国1990年到2011年的年度数据,运用向量自回归模型(VAR),考察了中国人口结构变化对商业保险的动态冲击效应,研究表明:中长期内,老年抚养比、教育深化度和人口城镇化率对商业保险发展有显著的正向影响,少儿抚养比对商业保险发展有反向影响。

The development of commercial insurance is closely related to the demographic structure, which is an important variable on the impact of commercial insurance growth. As China’s population changes, the main trend in demographic structure is reflected in the aging of the population, higher edu-cation of demographics as well as the urbanization of the population. Based on the annual data from 1990 to 2011, using vector auto regression model （VAR）, the research examines the dynamic impact ef-fects on commercial insurance from China’s demographic structure. It simply found：during medium to long term, the old-age dependency rate, education degree and urbanization rate have a significant posi-tive effect on the development of commercial insurance, while child-age dependency rate has a reverse effect.