近50年黑龙江省黑土区气温时空变化分析

Temporal and spatial variations in air temperature during 1961-2010 over black soil area of Heilongjiang Province

文章以黑龙江省黑土区24个市县1961—2010年的日平均气温数据为依据，运用趋势性分析、MK突变检验分析、空间插值分析，从空间和时间两方面分析黑龙江省黑土区气温时空变化特征。结果表明，黑龙江省黑土区近50年平均气温由北向南逐渐升高，每10年平均气温升高约0．368℃。从气温年代际变化中发现黑土区气温在逐渐升高，其高温区正在向北移动。春夏秋冬四季气温升温幅度存在季节性差异，冬季升温幅度最大，其次是夏季，春、秋两个季节升温幅度较小；黑土区在90年代中期增温十分明显，1988年发生一次显著突变。

Based on the daily air temperature data in the 24 meteorological stations in the black soil area in Heilongjiang Province from 1961 to 2010 and with three methods- Trend Prediction, Mann-Kendall Test, and Spatial Interpolation Analysis, this paper made an analysis of the chronic and spatial temperature features in the black soil areas. The annual variation, seasonal and inter-decadal variation of air temperature were summarized and analyzed. It showed that the annual temperature increased gradually from north to south during the period of 50 years. The warming rate of annual mean temperature in black soil area was0.368 per10 years. The study suggested that the annual mounting trend of the temperature in Heilongjiang Province varies greatly on the inter-decadal time scales. High temperature region moved to north. The warming trends had the season difference. It behaved stronger in winter and weaker in spring. On the timescale of 50 years, there was an obvious truth of warming and abrupt change on the temperature of black soil area in Heilongjiang Province, abrupt change point was 1988.