台风灾害下无车群体应急疏散决策行为分析

Analysis of Carless Emergency Evacuation Decision-making Behaviors Under Typhoon Disasters

为了深入挖掘台风灾害下无车群体的应急疏散决策行为,从度量疏散群体中某一普通被疏散者的风险承受能力入手,建立了被疏散者风险容忍阈值模型来描述其疏散决策过程。通过台风灾害下应急疏散行为意向调查数据采集,并在全部调查数据中依据选择"政府提供应急车辆进行疏散"的比例提取无车群体疏散数据。采用Probit回归方法对无车群体和全体被疏散者2类群体的风险容忍阈值模型进行回归,对显著影响不同群体风险承受能力的因素进行比较分析。研究结果表明:对无车群体而言,被疏散者自身的恐慌感以及灾害环境造成的威胁是影响其风险承受能力最为关键的因素;而从全体被疏散者的角度来考察,除了上述2类因素,被疏散者是否拥有私家车以及所居住房屋的承受能力对最终疏散决策有显著影响。

In order to deeply explore the emergency evacuation decision-making behaviors of carless evacuees under typhoon disasters, from measuring a certain common evacuee＇s risk tolerance capability, a risk tolerance threshold （RTT） model to describe the evacuee＇s evacuation decision-making process was established. Based on the evacuation data obtained from the evacuation behavior stated-preference （SP） survey, carless evacuation data were extracted according to the proportion of those who chose emergency vehicles provided by the government to evacuate in the survey. RTT models of carless group and all evacuees were estimated with Probit regression method and the significance of each factor affecting the risk tolerance capabilities of different groups was analyzed for comparison. The results show that for carless evacuees the panic and threat of typhoon disasters are key factors affecting the risk tolerance capability; while from the perspective of all evacuees, private car ownership and house sustainability are also significant for final evacuation decisions.