开都河流域气候变化特征及其对径流的影响

Climate change characteristics and impacts on surface runoff in the Kaidu River Basin

采用Mann-Kendall趋势及突变检验、R/S的Hurst指数以及线性回归、滑动平均等方法,分析开都河流域1960—2010年的气温、降水及径流量指标,揭示该流域气候变化及径流响应的特征和长期趋势。结果表明,开都河流域近50年的气温、降水及径流量均呈显著增加趋势,增长率分别为0.027℃/a、0.863 mm/a和0.625 m3/a,其相应的突变年份分别为1993、1986和1996年。流域内山区既是气温增温最大的地区,也是降水增加最显著的地区。在气候变暖背景下,山区年均温及春、夏、秋3季升温比绿洲区的响应更为显著,但在绿洲区冬季升温则更为显著;山区降水量增加趋势较绿洲区显著。在过去50年,开都河径流突变前后多年平均径流量增加了9.96亿m3,对该流域工农业发展、生活以及生态可持续发展产生了很大的影响。

Based on the data of temperature,precipitation and runoff time series from 1960 to 2010 in the Kaidu River Basin,this paper revealed the regional climate and runoff variation characteristics by using the Mann-Kendall trend and abrupt change test,R/S method,linear regression and moving average methods.The results showed that the temperature,precipitation and runoff in the Kaidu River Basin presented an increasing trend with a growth rate of 0.027 ℃/a,0.863 mm/a and 0.625 m3/a,respectively.The corresponding years of abrupt change were 1993,1986 and 1996,respectively.In the mountainous area,both temperature and precipitation increased most remarkably.Under the warming climate,the average annual,spring,summer and autumn temperature in the oasis area increased more obviously than those in the mountainous area,but in the oasis area,winter temperature increased more significantly; the precipitation in mountainous area increased more significantly than that in the oasis.In the past fifty years,the runoff of Kaidu River Basin had increased by 9.96 × 108 m3,which had a great effect on industrial and agricultural development,daily life and ecological sustainable development of Kaidu River Basin.