摘要
采用Mann-Kendall趋势及突变检验、R/S的Hurst指数以及线性回归、滑动平均等方法,分析开都河流域1960—2010年的气温、降水及径流量指标,揭示该流域气候变化及径流响应的特征和长期趋势。结果表明,开都河流域近50年的气温、降水及径流量均呈显著增加趋势,增长率分别为0.027℃/a、0.863 mm/a和0.625 m3/a,其相应的突变年份分别为1993、1986和1996年。流域内山区既是气温增温最大的地区,也是降水增加最显著的地区。在气候变暖背景下,山区年均温及春、夏、秋3季升温比绿洲区的响应更为显著,但在绿洲区冬季升温则更为显著;山区降水量增加趋势较绿洲区显著。在过去50年,开都河径流突变前后多年平均径流量增加了9.96亿m3,对该流域工农业发展、生活以及生态可持续发展产生了很大的影响。
Based on the data of temperature,precipitation and runoff time series from 1960 to 2010 in the Kaidu River Basin,this paper revealed the regional climate and runoff variation characteristics by using the Mann-Kendall trend and abrupt change test,R/S method,linear regression and moving average methods.The results showed that the temperature,precipitation and runoff in the Kaidu River Basin presented an increasing trend with a growth rate of 0.027 ℃/a,0.863 mm/a and 0.625 m3/a,respectively.The corresponding years of abrupt change were 1993,1986 and 1996,respectively.In the mountainous area,both temperature and precipitation increased most remarkably.Under the warming climate,the average annual,spring,summer and autumn temperature in the oasis area increased more obviously than those in the mountainous area,but in the oasis area,winter temperature increased more significantly; the precipitation in mountainous area increased more significantly than that in the oasis.In the past fifty years,the runoff of Kaidu River Basin had increased by 9.96 × 108 m3,which had a great effect on industrial and agricultural development,daily life and ecological sustainable development of Kaidu River Basin.
出处
《中国水土保持科学》
CSCD
2014年第1期81-89,共9页
Science of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)“气候变化对西北干旱区水资源的影响及未来趋势分析”(2010CB951003)
国家自然科学基金“过去500年新疆北部水文变化及其气候驱动”(U1203281)
荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室开放课题“基于SWAT模型的开都-孔雀河流域供需水模拟研究”(G2013-02-02)
新疆大学绿洲生态教育部重点实验室开放课题“干旱区极端气候水文事件变化及其发生机理”(XJDX0206-2011-02)
关键词
气候变化
径流
趋势
突变
开都河流域
climate change
runoff
trend
abrupt change
Kaidu River Basin