商丘市土地利用变化及其对粮食安全的影响分析

Analysis of the Change of Land Exploitation of Shanqiu City and Its Influence on Grain Safety

基于1990年和2004年的TM遥感影像数据,借助遥感图像处理软件ERDAS、ENVI和地理信息系统软件ArcGIS进行分析,得到商丘市两个时相间的土地利用转移矩阵;采用了土地利用动态度、土地利用开发度、土地利用耗减度、土地利用程度综合指数等模型对土地利用状况进行定量分析评价,并通过Markov链对商丘市2018年、2032年的土地利用结构进行了预测;研究结果表明,14年间商丘市主城区土地利用格局发生了巨大变化,尤以耕地和建设用地变化显著,期间耕地面积减少了208.38 km2,而建设用地增加了141.89 km2,最后,基于耕地压力指数分析了耕地数量的变化对于该农业大市的粮食安全的影响,商丘市的粮食安全问题日益严重,迫切需要保护耕地的数量和质量。

Based on TM remote sensing image data in 1990 and in 2004, by the analysis based on remote sensing image processing software ERDAS, ENVI and geographic information system software ArcGIS, the land exploitation transfer matrix of Shanqiu City at two phases is obtained. By using the models such as dynamic degree of land exploitation, developing degree of land exploitation, depletion degree of land exploitation, comprehensive index of land exploitation degree, and so on, quantitative analysis and evaluation are conducted on the status quo of the land exploitation. By using Markov chain, the land exploitation structure of Shanqiu City is predicted in 2018 and in 2032. The results show that the land exploitation pattern of main urban area of Shanqiu City has greatly taken place in the past 14 years, especially the change of arable land and construction land is significant, in this period, arable land area reduced 208.38 km2 while construction land increased 141.89 km2. Finally, the influence of the change of the number of arable land on grain safety of this big agricultural city is analyzed based on arable land pressure index and the result demonstrates that the grain problem in Shanqiu City is more and more serious and so the number of arable land and the quality arable land are urgently needing to be protected.