基于广义相加模型的脑卒中发病环境因素分析

Analysis of Environment Factors for the Incidence of Brain Stroke Based on Generalized Additive Model

利用统计方法,通过建立广义相加模型,对脑卒中发病数与气温,气压和湿度之间的关系做了建模分析;结果显示,低气温和高气压对脑卒中发病率的影响较大,不同性别脑卒中发病率对天气的反应不一样,女性对气压的反应要更大些,60岁以下的人群脑卒中发病率受低温影响较为明显,而60岁以上人群脑卒中发病率受气压变化的影响更为明显;最后,对高危人群提出预警和干预的建议方案。

By using statistical method, through setting up generalized additive model, this paper conducts modeling analysis of the relationship among the number of brain stroke incidence, temperature, atmospheric pressure and humidity, and the results show that low pressure or high pressure has big influence on the incidence of brain stroke, that the stroke incidence rate with different genders is differently sensitive to the weather, that the female has bigger sensitivity to atmospheric pressure, meanwhile, the brain stroke incidence rate for the people under 60 years old is obviously affected by low temperature, however, the brain stroke incidence rate for the people above 60 years old is more obviously affected by pressure.Finally ,this paper advances suggestions of intervention and early-warning for high risk human groups with the possible incidence of brain stroke.