典型相关分析法在我国财政政策与宏观经济发展分析中的应用研究

A Research on Application of Canonical Correlation Analysis on the Relationship Between Financial Policy and Macro-economic Development

利用典型相关分析法研究了财政政策对我国宏观经济发展的影响,指出了财政政策与我国宏观经济存在着显著的相关关系,发现财政政策以财政支出政策和税收政策为主,财政支出政策、公债政策、税收政策与预算政策有一定的相互抑制作用。并且,扩张性财政政策行为所体现的总体增长率增加1单位,可使宏观经济发展总体增长率增加0.765单位。这些结论可以为政府制定政策提供决策依据。

This paper, by using the method of canonical correlation analysis, researched into the effect of financial policy for the development of our country＇ s macro economy and pointed out the significant correlations between them, and found that the fiscal policy had mainly embodied on to fiscal expenditure policy and tax policy, and that the fiscal expenditure policy, bonds policy, tax policy and budget policy mutually pre-cast each other. In addition, the growth rate reflected by dilated fiscal policy behavior increasing 1 unit can make macro economic growth rate increase 0. 765 unit. Such research will provide a basis for government decision-making.