河南省居民人均收入与金融业发展关系实证研究

A Study of Relationship Between Residents' Per Capita Income and Financial Sector Development Based on the ECM Model

虽然金融发展理论经过了几十年的研究,出现了许多新的观点和学说,但无论国内还是国外,对于金融发展和居民收入之间关系的研究还处于一种比较模糊的状态,没有形成一个独立完整的研究领域.利用1993年～2011年河南省金融业发展和居民人均收入的数据,通过协整分析、ECM模型分析和Granger因果检验,研究分析了河南省金融业发展和居民人均收入增长之间的关系,并提出了相应的政策建议,以期能够形成金融业和居民收入之间相互促进、相互推动的良性发展局面.

Although the diversified perspectives and doctrines have been derived from the theory of financial development throughout decades of researches, the study of the relationship between financial development and residents＇ income is still in a vague state both at home and abroad, and a complete and independent research field has not yet formed. This paper, having collected the dataof financial sector development and the inhabitants＇ average income in Henan Province from the year 1993 to 2011 and by applying co-integration analysis, the ECM model a- nalysis and Granger causality test, carried out a research on and analyzed the relationship between the development of the financial industry and the residents＇ per capita income growth in Henan Province, then, correspondingly made policy recommendations in order to be able to form a situation in which the financial industry and residents＇ income can promote each other and help to accelerate the establishment of the suitable interaction between the residents＇ per capita income and financial sector development in the Province