扩大内需战略能否扭转我国服务贸易逆差——来自我国和23个OECD国家的面板数据分析

Domestic Demand Expansion Strategy and Services Trade Deficit: An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data of China and Other 23 Countries

本文基于扩展的引力模型,利用我国和23个OECD国家2000-2010年的双边服务贸易数据,分析了扩大内需战略对服务业出口和进口的影响。实证结果表明:虽然一国的市场规模可以促进服务业出口,但是对服务业进口的提升作用更强。因此,扩大内需战略无法扭转服务贸易逆差的困境。此外,完善的司法制度、共同边界以及相同的语言都是促进服务业出口的重要因素。本文不仅丰富了新贸易理论范式,同时为扭转我国服务贸易逆差,优化服务贸易结构,强化服务贸易的国际竞争力提供了可靠的路径。

Based on bilateral data in China and other 23 countries from 2000 to 2010, this paper utilizes extended Gravity model to analyze how domes- tic demand expansion strategy impacts services exports and imports. The empiri- cal results reveal that market size promotes services exports while it has a stron- ger effect on services imports; as a result, implementing domestic demand expan- sion strategy cannot reverse the service trade deficit situation. In addition, sound judicial system, common boundary and identical language are all considered to be key factors that can change the services trade deficit in China. In a word, this paper not only enriches the research paradigm of new trade theory, but also creates a reliable path to reverse services trade deficit situation, optimize the structure of services trade and strengthen the international competitiveness of Chi-na＇s trade in services.