转型期中国经济周期波动特征与形成机理分析

Analysis of the Fluctuation Characteristics and the Formation Mechanism of China's Business Cycle during the Transition Period

转型期中国经济的周期性波动特征明显,前后共经历了五轮经济波动。根据市场经济体制的确立时间和经济周期波动特点,将转型期划分为改革开放探索阶段和改革深化阶段。描述性分析表明,前一阶段经济周期波动的核心特征是高增长与通货膨胀,政府调节经济主要依靠行政手段,调控的重点是如何抑制需求的过度扩张;后一阶段经济波动的核心特征是流动性过剩、有效需求不足与通货紧缩,政府对经济的调节以间接宏观经济政策为主,调控的重点转变为启动内需。经济周期波动特征、政府调控方式和调控重点的演变反映了改革开放以来中国经济结构、宏观经济环境和经济运行机制的变化。

The periodic fluctuation characteristic of China＇s business cycle is significant dur- ing the transition period, and five rounds of business fluctuation can be found. According to the establishment time of market economy and the fluctuation characteristics of China＇s business cycle, the transition period is classified into the exploration period of reform and opening up and the reform deepening period. Descriptive analysis shows that high growth and inflation are the key fea- tures of the business cycle in the former period. During the period, administrative methods are used by the government to control economy, and the emphasis is put on how to control the over ex- pansion of demand. The key features of the business cycle in the later period are excessive liquidi- ty, insufficient effective demand and deflation. Government relies on macro - policies to control e- conomy, and the emphasis is put on encouraging domestic demand. The fluctuation characteristics of business cycle, government regulation and control, and the emphasis change of economic con- trol can well reflect the changes of China＇s economic structure, macro -economic environment, and economic operational mechanism since China＇s reform and opening up.