中国石油供求变化趋势及石油安全问题分析

The Supply and Demand Change of Oil and the Oil Security in China

中国经济自1970年代末以来发生了根本性的转变。最近的32年中,GDP年均增长率达9.9%,堪称奇迹。中国经济腾飞的背后伴随着巨大的物质能源消耗,而石油在中国能源供给方面占有极大的份额。但中国国内石油产量始终跟不上国民经济的发展速度。中国石油需求量总体呈上升趋势,而石油供给则面临严峻考验。由于中国石油的巨大供需缺口、石油储备体系不健全、石油进口渠道单一、石油定价机制不完善、国际政治局势不稳定等突出问题,中国面临着日益严峻的石油安全危机。当前,在中国经济无法摆脱对石油资源依赖的情况下,石油安全战略显得更加重要。

Fundamental changes have taken place to China＇s economy since 1970s. In the last 32 years, it is a miracle that China＇s GDP growth has reached 9.9%. However, China＇s fast economic growth is accompanied by enormous resources consumption, and oil takes a large share of China＇s energy supply. However, oil production in China cannot keep pace with the growth of national economy. In general, the demand of oil in China keeps rising which gives severe test to the oil supply in China. Owing to several problems such as the great gap between supply and demand, the imperfect petroleum reserve system, the single channel of oil import, the imperfect of oil pricing mechanism, and the unstable international political situation, China is facing a more and more serious risk of oil security. At present, China cannot get rid of its dependence on oil, so oil security strategy becomes more important.