我国经济运行的内在规律及其未来发展趋势

The Inherent Law of China's Economic Performance and Its Future Trend of Development

经济增速的周期性波动是各国经济运行的内在规律。我国需求结构从价格较低、使用年限较短的家用电器转向价格很高、使用年限很长的家庭乘用车,是GDP增长周期波长不断延长的决定性因素。2007年二季度以后我国GDP增速持续下降,出口和城镇居民消费实际增速持续下降是主要因素,其他因素贡献的大幅度下降也有重要影响。目前我国经济增速依然处于中长期波动的底部。趋势外推和模拟预测结果表明,2013年三季度以后我国GDP增速将回升并进入周期性上升期,2014年到2020年期间经济增速将回升到8%到10%的较快增长区间。

Periodic fluctuation of economic growth is the inherent law of different economic performance. A demand structure in China has changed from low- price and short- service- life home appliances to the high-price and long-service-life private cars,which is the decisive factor to extend the GDP growth. Since the second quarter of 2007,China's GDP growth has continued to decline because exports and urban consumption growth in real terms has increasingly decreased. Of course,other decreasing contributors do function. At present,China's eco-nomic growth still remains at the bottom of the medium and long term fluctuation. Trend extrapolation and model prediction show that since the third quarter of 2013 China's GDP growth has rebounded and will go into the cyclical period of rising. From 2014 till 2020,economic growth will rebound,ranging from 8% to 10%.