中国后发展地区的界定与低碳发展策略

Definition and Low-carbon Development Suggestions of China's Under-developing Regions

后发展地区的低碳发展道路问题是我国经济发展在当前形势下所面临的现实而迫切的重大课题,本文对后发展地区低碳发展路径这一战略问题展开探索性研究。首先,综合各研究文献对地区发展水平界定的指标体系,选取经济总体水平、工业化、城镇化以及资源环境四大类综合指标对全国31个省区市的发展水平做出评分与界定。从综合指标分析结果来看,全国除广东、北京、浙江、江苏、天津、上海6个省市以外,其他25个省市均处于后发展阶段,其中20个省市处于中后发展阶段,5个省市处于落后发展阶段。然后,结合2010年各地区经济发展与能源消费情况从能源强度、产业结构、能源效率等方面对后发展地区的低碳发展现状作出分析,表明:我国各省区市能源强度差异很大,后发展地区单位GDP能源强度普遍高于先发展地区,高耗能工业的比例以及工业单位产值能耗普遍高于全国平均水平,其中部分地区超出全国平均水平的2-3倍之多,反映出后发展地区经济结构的高能耗化以及能源利用效率的相对较低的发展现状。最后,在现状分析的基础上,对后发展地区低碳发展的特征做出总结,包括:发展仍然是后发展地区的首要任务,但发展空间受到挤压,能源环境约束明显;高碳产业短期内呈刚性增长,产业结构调整难度较大,资金、技术支撑不足;后发展地区普遍拥有较大的减排潜力与空间,减排成本相对较低;大部分后发展地区还拥有丰富的清洁能源资源,清洁能源应用空间大。按照"共同但有区别责任"的原则,结合后发展地区当前经济发展阶段的必然要求、自身资源禀赋的特点以及未来可持续发展的长远布局,提出建议:后发展地区的低碳发展道路应该按照"高碳产业低碳化、低碳产业支柱化、能源结构清洁化、碳汇资源商品化、区域布局功能化"五个方面统筹发展。

This article studies the low-carbon development path of China＇ s under-developing regions, which is a realistic and urgent challenge for China in its current economic situation. First of all, the level of development of the 31 provinces are assessed and defined using the comprehensive index of the four main categories including the overall level of economic, industrialization, urbanization, and resources and environment, according to the comprehensive index of the level of development for regions in previous literature. The analysis on the comprehensive index shows that besides the 6 provinces Guangdong, Beijing, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Tianjin, and Shanghai, the 25 provinces are in under-developing stage at present, with 20 at a mid-developing stage and 5 backward. This article also analyzes the low-carbon development status of the under-developing regions from aspects including energy intensity, industrial structure, and energy efficiency. The research results show that the energy intensity of the provinces varies significantly, with the energy intensity per GDP of the under-developing regions generally higher than that of the developed regions. The share of energy intensive industries and the energy consumption per unit output in under-developing regions are generally higher than national average, with some above the national average for 2 - 3 times. It is implied that the under-developing regions are facing a developing situation in which the economic structure is energy intensive and the energy efficiency is low. This article also concludes the low-carbon development characteristics of under-developing regions, including： Development is still the most important task of the under- developing regions, while the space for development is less and the environment and energy constraints are significant; high carbon industries will have a rigid growth in the short-term, and it is difficult to restructure with insufficient investment and technology support; developing regions have more space and potentials for emission reduction, due to the lack of advance technologies, and thus have lower abatement costs ; most of the developing regions have abundant clean energy sources, which makes a large space for the implementation of clean energy. According to the development principle of ＂Common but Differentiated Responsibilities＂, combining the need for economic development, the resource characteristics and the path for sustainable development of the under-developing regions, we suggest a low-carbon path with ＂low carbonization of high-carbon industries, low-carbon industries as support, clean energy structure, carbon-sink resource commercialization, and regional distribution＂, and discuss in the article in detail.