基于IIM-TSDEA模型的洪灾经济易损性评估研究

An Economic Vulnerability Assessment of Floods Using the IIM-TSDEA Model in China

由于极端气候事件频发,洪水灾害发生频率和影响越来越大,人们对灾害的研究从关注致灾因子转移到易损性,并认为易损性是灾害的根本原因。作者在分析现有易损性研究基础上,从系统投入产出角度,提出洪灾易损性的内涵,构建洪灾易损性的投入产出评价指标体系,并建立IIM-TSDEA模型。应用该模型对我国1998年洪水灾害易损性进行了评价,揭示洪灾直接经济易损性、间接经济易损性和总经济易损性的空间分布特征,并通过各省经济发展水平与经济易损性的相关分析,发现二者之间存在非线性关系,总的变动趋势呈倒U型曲线关系。这一发现揭示承灾体易损性和经济发展阶段的相对水平可以作为灾害管理绩效高低的评判标准,减灾活动的目的是提高承灾体的恢复能力,使灾害易损性拐点出现在经济发展的较低阶段。该文的理论及模型方法既能弥补目前洪灾易损性评估不涉及间接经济影响的不足,又可以克服评估中经常使用的评估方法的主观赋权的缺陷。

Due to frequent occurence of extreme weather and climate events, frequency and intensity of flood events are bigger and bigger. Therefore, the flood disaster researchers shift their focus from the hazard intensity to the vulnerability, which is considered to be the root causes of disaster. Based on existing vulnerability studies, the authors defined the meaning of flood vulnerability and built a flood vulnerability assessment index system from the perspective of the input-output system. By using the index system, IIM-TSDEA was established to evaluate the spatial variation of floods direct, indirect and total economic vulnerability in 1998 in China. It was found that there was a non-linear relationship between provincial economic development level and economic vulnerability index. The overall evolution path of them showed an inverted U-shaped curve trend. The results indicate that the relative level between vulnerability of hazard-beating body and economic development could be used as an indicator of disaster management achievement. Disaster reduction aim is to improve the resilience of hazard-beating body and make disaster vulnerability inflection point appear in the lower stages of economic development. The theory and method in the paper can both avoid the drawbacks that flood disaster damage assessment does not involve the indirect economic impact and can reduce subjectivity of the usual index methods frequently used in flood vulnerability assessment.