某市春节负荷特性分析及预测方法应用研究

Load characteristics analysis and load forecasting method at Spring Festival in some city

分析了江苏连云港地区春节期间特别是除夕负荷曲线的形状、走势和特点,综合考虑天气、重大事件、历史负荷等对春节期间负荷变化的影响,针对春节负荷应用一种自适应神经网络负荷预测方法。该方法通过选取人体舒适度相似的节假日、历年相似日、前一日的负荷数据预测当日负荷,以提高预测精度。算例表明,该方法有效地提高了春节负荷预测的精度,弥补了传统算法除夕负荷预测误差大的问题。

The shape of the load curve during Spring Festi-val,especially New Year？？s Eve in Lianyungang district, and its varying trend and characteristics are analyzed. An adaptive artifi-cial neural network model is proposed for Spring Festival,consider-ing the influence of whether, major event and historical load on the variation of load. This method forecasts the load by selecting week-end which is similar on human body amenity indicator, similar day over the past year, the day before. The results of calculation exam-ples show that this method is effective.