能源消费、技术进步与经济增长效应——基于脉冲响应函数和方差分解的分析

Energy Consumption,Technical Progress and Economic Growth Effect——Based on Impulse Response Function and Variance Decomposition

本文根据我国1979-2010年的样本,建立能源消费、技术进步与经济增长的向量自回归模型。研究结果发现,从长期来看,我国能源消费状况与经济增长呈负相关关系,而技术进步对经济增长具有显著的正向效应;从短期来看,技术进步、经济增长是能源消费的Granger原因,能源强度对经济增长的脉冲响应是先正向后负向,而技术进步对经济增长的冲击表现为正向效应,技术进步对能源强度的脉冲响应是负向效应,对能源消费起到抑制作用。

Based on the sample of 1979 -2010 years, a vector auto regression model of energy consumption, technologi- cal progress and economic growth is established and the dynamic relationships between them are empirically analyzed with the econometric method of the cointegration test, Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition. Conclusions are obtained as follows： In the long term, there is a negative correlation between energy consumption and econom- ic growth in China, and technological progress has a significant positive effect on economic growth. In the short term, techno- logical progress and economic growth are the Granger causality of energy consumption. Impulse response of economic growth to energy intensity is initially positive and later negative. The impact of technological progress on economic growth is positive, which has an inhibitory effect on energy consumption.