基于灰色理论的应急预案实施效果评价研究

A Study of Gray-Theory-based Effectiveness Evaluation of Emergency Plans

为了评价应急预案的有效性,提出了基于灰色理论的应急预案实施效果评价方法。从预案的实施效果出发,充分发挥灰色理论在不完全信息处理中的优势,首先采用灰色聚类方法对评价指标进行筛选,然后利用灰色关联方法确定指标权重并计算各指标和预案整体的评价系数,从而构建了基于灰色理论的应急预案有效性评价模型。最后通过案例分析验证了模型的可行性和有效性。

This paper proposes a gray-theory-based effectiveness evaluation of emergency plans, which starts from the effectiveness of the plan and has full play of the advantages of gray theory in the incomplete information processing. It is suggests to： first, screen evaluation through gray clustering method; second, determine the index weight and calculate the evaluation coefficient of the various indicators and plan through gray correlation method, thus building a gray-theory-based evaluation model for the effectiveness of contingency plans. Finally, feasibility and effectiveness of these methods are authenticated by specific cases.