灰色模型与曲线拟合沉降预测及相关性分析

Settlement Prediction by Gray Model and Curve Fitting and Relevance Analysis

为了研究地表沉降预测的规律,分析常用的变形监测数据处理方法。文中结合某煤矿工业广场主井井架基础沉降监测数据,将灰色GM(1,1)模型与曲线拟合理论应用于井架基础沉降变形的数据分析,进行地表沉降预测结果的分析和检验,取得了较好的预测效果,并运用F检验法,对两种预测结果进行相关性分析,得出了合理选择预测模型的基本结论。同时文中也引用了已公开发表的沉降实测数据进行计算分析,印证了所用方法的正确性和科学性。

In order to study the rule of the surface settlement forecasting, the commonly used methods in deform- ation monitoring data process are analyzed. In this paper, combined with foundation settlement monitoring data of headframe in some coal mine, the gray GM （ 1,1 ） model and curve fitting theory are applied to analyze the foundation settlement of headframe. The prediction results were analyzed,verified and to be proven. F-test is used to analyze the relativity of the prediction results and the basic conclusion is drawn to rationally select the prediction model. Mean- while, the monitoring data published in the public was cited in this paper and calculated, which confirmed the cor- rectness and scientificity of the method.