地下经济与正规经济关系的再检验

A Re-examination on the Relationship between Underground Economy and Formal Economy

国内外学术界对地下经济与正规经济之间的关系至今仍未取得一致的认识。在采用修正的现金比率法估算1979年～2011年我国地下经济规模的基础上，利用非线性STR模型重新检验二者之间的变化关系，结果表明：首先，我国正规经济对地下经济产生了非线性冲击效应，并在线性和非线性特征之间转换频繁。其中，1979年～1984年和1997年～2011年间，正规经济与地下经济呈明显的线性关系；1985年～1996年间，二者之间为非线性关系。，其次，正规经济对地下经济的影响具有非对称性。当正规经济的增长率低于-12．64％或超过21．70％时，正规经济对地下经济的影响是显著非线性的，地下经济对正规经济的弹性为1．1364，表示此时的地下经济将以更大幅度的下降或增长；当正规经济增长率介于-12．64％～21．70％之间时，其对地下经济的影响是线性的，表明影响有限。因此，应警惕正规经济出现负增长或增长过热。

The academic circle at home and abroad has not achieved a consistent understanding on the re- lationship between underground economy and formal economy. On the basis of estimating the size of the un- derground economy in China from 1979 to 2011 with the modified cash ratio method, this paper re-examines the nexus between them by using the nonlinear STR model. The results show that firstly, the formal economy in China has a nonlinear impact on the underground economy, which transforms frequently between linear and nonlinear features. During 1979 ~ 1984 and 1997 ~ 2011, the relationship between the informal econo- my and the underground economy demonstrates a linear feature, but a nonlinear feature between 1985 and 1996. Secondly, the effect of the formal economy on the underground economy is non-symmetry. When the growth ratio of the formal economy is less than - 12.64%, or more than 21.70%, the formal economy has a significant nonlinear influence on the underground economy, and the elasticity is 1. 136 4, which means that the underground economy will more significantly decline or increase when the formal economy falls or ri- ses. On the contrary, when the growth rate of the formal economy ranges between - 12. 64% and 21.70%, the influence on the underground economy is linear. Therefore, we should be alert to the negative growth or overheated growth in the formal economy.