升值背景下跨境贸易人民币结算影响因素的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of Influencing Factors of RMB Cross-border Trade Settlement under Appreciation

以国际贸易结算货币选择理论为基础,构建VAR模型,分析贸易规模、出口产品差异化、汇率及升值预期、利差和离岸金融市场发展深度等对人民币结算规模的影响。研究结果表明:套利套汇活动并不是当前人民币跨境结算大幅增长的原因,离岸金融市场发展深度才是我国当前跨境贸易人民币结算增长的最大影响因素,人民币持续升值也会促进跨境贸易人民币结算的增长。因此当前首要任务是建设好离岸人民币市场,以此为基础推动跨境贸易人民币结算的发展。

Based on the theory of international trade settlement currency choice, this paper builds the VAR model to analyze the impact of trade scale, export product differentiation, exchange rate and its expec- ted appreciation, the difference of interest rates and the development depth of offshore financial market on RMB settlement scale. The results show that arbitrage activity is not a significant reason for the growth of RMB cross-border settlement. But the development of offshore financial market plays a key role in the above factors, and the appreciation of RMB is also a positive factor. Therefore, the primary task is to build the off- shore financial market as a basis for promoting the development of RMB cross-border settlement.