东亚大气可吸入颗粒物时空分布的数值模拟研究

Modeling study of atmospheric respirable particulate matter over East Asia

利用嵌套网格空气质量模式（Nested Air Quality Prediction Model System，NAQPMS）模拟研究了2010年东亚地区可吸入颗粒物（PM10）的时空演变，并初步评估了其对人群健康的危险度.结果表明，NAQPMS模式能够合理地反映东亚地区PM10的时空分布，不同季节观测值和模拟值的总体相关系数达到0.65-0.85. 2010年东亚PM10的地面浓度高值区（100 μg·m-3）出现在我国华北、华中和内蒙古中西部等地区.其中，无机盐（硫酸盐、硝酸盐和铵盐）对我国东部PM10的贡献最大（10-70 μg·m-3，20%-50%）；一次PM10次之（5-50 μg·m-3，10%-30%），有机物（5-30 μg·m-3，10%-20%）和黑炭（3-20 μg·m-3，3%-5%）紧随其后.PM10可以引起我国东部人群急性总死亡率增加2%-5%，对我国居民的健康水平构成了一定威胁.

The Nested Air Quality Prediction Model System （NAQPMS） was used to investigate the temporal and spatial variations of PM10 and its short-term impact on human health over East Asia in 2010. Comparison between simulated and observed PM10 showed that NAQPMS was able to reproduce the evolution of PM10 over East Asia reasonably with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.65 to 0.85 in four seasons. The results indicated that high surface PM10 was mainly located in Central and Northern China and central western Inner Mongolia, with a magnitude of more than 100 μg·m-3. In eastern China, inorganic aerosols （sulfate, nitrate and ammonium） dominated surface PM10 mass （10~70 μg·m-3, 20%~50%）. Primary PM10 typically accounted for 10%~30% of average PM10 mass.Organic matter and elemental carbon in PM10 mass ranged 10%~20% and 3%~5%, respectively. Furthermore, a preliminary estimate showed that PM10 might increase 2%~5% of daily mortality in Eastern China in 2010.