中国对俄罗斯及中亚国家直接投资的贸易效应研究——基于面板数据的实证分析

Trade Effect of China's Direct Investment to Russia and Central Asian Countries——Based on Empirical Analysis of Panel Data

本文在分析中国对俄罗斯及中亚国家直接投资和进出口贸易发展的基础上,以俄罗斯和中亚五国为研究样本,利用2003年—2012年的面板数据分析了中国对俄罗斯及中亚国家直接投资与进出口贸易的关系。研究结果表明:中国对俄罗斯及中亚国家的直接投资均具有明显的出口促进效应,除塔吉克斯坦和吉尔吉斯斯坦外也都具有进口促进效应;中国对俄罗斯及中亚国家直接投资的贸易效应存在较为明显的国别差异。造成这些差异的原因可能与俄罗斯及中亚国家在要素禀赋、中国对其投资行业结构、投资方式以及东道国自身投资自由度等方面的差异有关。

In this paper we firstly analyze the development of China＇ s direct investment and trade to Russia and central Asian countries. Using the data from 2003 to 2012 from six countries, we establish a panel data model for quantitatively assessment the relationship between Chinese investment and trade to Russia and central countries. It is found out that Chinese direct investment has a complementary export effect to all sampled countries, and a complementary import effect except Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. But there are significant difference exists in sampled countries, which related to the differences of country factor endowment, Chinese investment structure, investment pattern and host countries＇ investment policy. Finally, we put forward the relevant countermeasures.