人民币实际有效汇率变动的进口贸易转型效应

The Effect of Imports Transformation caused by RMB Real Effective Exchange Rate Changes

进口贸易转型是中国进口贸易结构调整的重要方向。本文使用面板数据的固定影响变系数模型研究方法，利用2005年7月～2013年1月的月度数据，实证研究了人民币实际有效汇率变动对进口贸易转型的影响。结果发现，人民币实际有效汇率升值能够推动进口贸易转型，即增加对最终消费品的进口，而降低对中间产品的进口。而人民币实际有效汇率波动不利于最终产品的进口以及进口贸易转型的进程。同时，人民币实际有效汇率水平变动和汇率波动对中国进口贸易的时滞性影响较强。进口贸易转型的实现也将是一个漫长的过程。

The imports transformation is an important direction of China's import trade structure.Based on the monthly data from July2005 to January 2013,this paper researched the impact that imports transformation caused by RMB real effective exchange rate changes with fixed effects variable coefficient of panel model.And it found that the appreciation of RMB real effective exchange rate can improve imports transformation,i.e.,it can increase the imports of final consumer goods and reduce the import of intermediate products.The influence of RMB real effective exchange rate volatility is not conductive to imports transformation.And it is stronger on the time lag of China's imports trade.And the imports transformation will still be a long process.