基于面板协整的交通运输与区域经济发展研究

Relationship between Transportation and Regional Economic Growth Based on Panel Co- integration

利用1995—2011年度29个省市的面板数据,运用多指标面板聚类进行地域分类,然后运用面板协整和面板模型估计理论对交通运输与经济发展间的关系进行研究,发现按东、中、西分类不是最合理的分类方法,另外发现交通运输与经济增长两个变量都为一阶单整变量,且二者存在长期均衡关系,但是显著性水平较低。分别对3个地区做因果关系检验发现,经济增长是交通运输的Granger原因,反之不成立。

Based on the panel data of 29 provinces during 1995--2011 and in first use of multivariate panel data clustering, the relationship between transportation and economic development was studied by panel co -integration and panel model estima- tion theory. The empirical results show that the traditional method is not the most rational classification and the two variables are co - integrated, but the level of significance is low. In addition, Granger causality test shows there is only one - way output Granger causality between the two variables.