BT投资模式下城市公共基础设施项目风险评价

Risk Evaluation on Urban Public Infrastructure Projects under BT Investment Model

针对BT模式下城市公共基础设施项目具有投资规模大、建设周期长、参与主体多、法律关系复杂、工程管理难度大和风险复杂多变的特点,从实证研究出发,进行项目参与主体和全生命周期的二维坐标的风险识别,构建了BT投资模式下的城市公共基础设施项目风险评价模型,建立了其风险评价指标体系,确定了指标权重,并利用修正的拟合优度进行指标的赋值修正,消除冗余信息,降低了风险决策偏差,通过实例证明该风险评价指标体系与评价方法的有效性和实用性。

BT models of urban public infrastructure projects are characterized by large - scale investment, long construction period, lots of participating subjects, complex legal relations, lots of management difficulties and complex risks. Based on the empirical research, this paper identified the risks from two - dimensional coordinates including participants and the whole life cy- cle and constructed the risk evaluating model of public infrastructure projects of BT investment model, and then the risk evalua- ting index system was established under the risk evaluating model. Then the index weights were determined and the assignments of the index were modified by using modified goodness of fit in order to eliminate redundant information and reduce the risk deci- sion bias. Finally, an example was demonstrated to prove that the index system and evaluating method are both effective and practical.